Does Hatton Really Stand a Chance?

By Juan Angel Zurita (April 30, 2009) - Over the past few months, I’ve spoken with many people about this fight. It didn’t matter whether they were Filipino, Mexican, African-American, White, etc. 8 out of 10 of them typically predicted a resounding Pacquiao victory.  I found their perception quite intriguing considering the fact that the sportsbooks see it as a much closer fight as do many boxing insiders.

That brings us to the question. Does Ricky Hatton really stand a chance?

On paper he does stand ‘a’ chance, but based on recent performances, one would have to agree with the general public’s perception that Pacquiao will just be too fast and powerful.

That said, the general public’s perception doesn’t always accurately forecast the correct result. Remember not too long ago when Pacquiao was the overwhelming underdog against De La Hoya?

So what does this really all mean? It means that Hatton does stand more of a chance than most of the public is giving him credit for. Pacquiao isn’t unbeatable as Morales and Marquez have shown, and too much emphasis has been placed on Hatton’s heartbreaking TKO loss to Floyd Mayweather. 

Below are some points I keep in mind when analzying this bout.

1.  Like many great fighters, Pacquiao will eventually hit the wall at some point and this may very well be the bout where it happens. Would anyone really be surprised if it turns out Pacquiao isn’t the same fighter at 140 that he was at 126-135?

2.  Manny Pacquiao isn’t Floyd Mayweather Jr. Don’t get me wrong. Pacquiao is a great fighter in his own right, but Mayweather is the type of guy who has at least proven he can defeat a welterweight contender, albeit the lower tier contenders. Pacquiao’s best and lone victory at 147 came against the corpse of De La Hoya.  Does anyone recall De La Hoya even having the strength to throw a combination in that bout? Further, Mayweather defeated Hatton at 147, a weight class Hatton had no business in. Want further proof? Refer to Hatton’s other welterweight bout against Luis Collazo, a close bout that could’ve arguably gone either way. Hatton is simply at his best at 140 and should provide quite the test this Saturday night.

I’m definitely in the minority on this one, and I’ll probably get tons of “eat your crow” type emails after this fight.   Believe me, a part of me wants to jump on the bandwagon and support Pacquiao. However, something in my gut tells me that Hatton will somehow pull it off.  Despite what we saw in the De La Hoya fight, I know what I saw when he fought guys that actually fought back. 

At this very moment, I envision Pacquiao being handily ahead after 5-6 rounds before getting caught with a body shot that sends him tumbling to the canvas. I see him rising but getting halted several seconds later. 

Like both of these great fighters, I’m putting it all on the line for this one. Enjoy the fight.